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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to DEN 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 37 for 9 yards (54-L.Chenal; 45-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model