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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 34 for 10 yards (47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model