Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 26 for 17 yards (13-N.Johnson). DEN-6-P.Locke was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.03 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model