4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 55

Denver Broncos 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.55 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -1.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model