4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model