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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

JAX
65.1%
HOU
34.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Davis Mills (HOU): -0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 24
–
HOU 20
Projected margin: JAX by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

JAX

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Ankle
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Toe
Ross Matiscik LS Questionable Back
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Abdomen
Travon Walker LB Questionable Ankle
Andrew Wingard S Questionable Shoulder

HOU

Jimmy Morrissey C Out Concussion
Teagan Quitoriano TE Out Thigh
Dare Ogunbowale RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 31
–
HOU 3

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:29 TD JAX (8:29) (Shotgun) 22-J.Hasty left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 12:30 TD JAX (12:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – HOU 0
  • Q2 11:43 TD JAX (11:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at HOU 18 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen), touched at HOU 16, RECOVERED by JAX-32-T.Campbell at HOU 12. 32-T.Campbell for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – HOU 0
  • Q3 09:31 TD JAX (9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-S.Conner right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 27 – HOU 0
  • Q3 05:54 FG HOU (5:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. JAX 28 – HOU 3
  • Q4 06:10 FG JAX (6:10) 10-R.Patterson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 31 – HOU 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (11:35) 6-J.Driskel up the middle to HOU 45 for no gain (2-R.Jenkins, 31-D.Williams).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 23 for 7 yards (49-J.Hansen, 29-M.Stewart).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 60%

    (3:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks. Houston challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 11 yards (43-N.Hewitt; 46-J.Weeks).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 40%

    (14:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:41) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-53-B.Cashman.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (9:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 18 for -1 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on JAX-31-D.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at JAX 18.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (6:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 28-R.Burkhead.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to HOU 42 for 16 yards (57-C.Johnson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (2:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 64%

    (5:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 32%

    (11:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 4-P.Dorsett [48-C.Muma].

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 14 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (10:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to JAX 42, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at HOU 40 for 18 yards (53-B.Cashman).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 71%

    (6:10) 10-R.Patterson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 28%

    (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 41 for 12 yards (34-G.Junior) [41-J.Allen].

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 28%

    (2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 1-T.Smith.