Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 83

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(12:41) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-53-B.Cashman.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.76 EP
51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model