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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 18 for -1 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on JAX-31-D.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at JAX 18.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP