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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 5 at the 10
Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21
What Actually Happened
(6:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 28-R.Burkhead.
The Three Options
GO
+1.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.38 EP
KICK
+1.59 EP
- 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
