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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to HOU 42 for 16 yards (57-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.72 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP