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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 3 at the 51
Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28
What Actually Happened
(11:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 4-P.Dorsett [48-C.Muma].
The Three Options
GO
+0.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.76 EP
- 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.63 EP
KICK
-1.15 EP
- 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
