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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model