Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(1:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 11 yards (43-N.Hewitt; 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.67 EP
52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model