Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 61

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 17-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 32 for 8 yards (21-A.Phillips). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.74 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model