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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIA
50.4%
NE
49.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Mac Jones (NE): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 24
–
NE 23
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIA

Tua Tagovailoa QB Out Concussion
Eric Fisher T Doubtful Calf
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe, Pec, Knee, Hip
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Ankle
River Cracraft WR Questionable Calf
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Thumb
Greg Little T Questionable Foot

NE

Jack Jones CB Out Knee
Marcus Jones CB Out Concussion
DeVante Parker WR Out Concussion
Jonnu Smith TE Out Concussion
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Chest
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Groin
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Ankle
Tyquan Thornton WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 21
–
NE 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:19 TD NE (7:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 11-T.Thornton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) 10-T.Hill left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NE 7
  • Q3 09:22 TD MIA (9:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 31-R.Mostert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-C.Barmore]. MIA 13 – NE 7
  • Q3 04:08 FG NE (4:08) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy. MIA 14 – NE 10
  • Q3 03:03 TD NE (3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd def. TD of season, 1st Patriot to do that since 1970. Patriots 7th defensive TD of season, new franchise record. Patriots defensive TD in 4 straight games, new franchise record (first NFL occurence since TB 2002). MIA 14 – NE 16
  • Q4 04:40 TD NE (4:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-16-J.Meyers was injured during the play. MIA 14 – NE 22
  • Q4 01:11 TD MIA (1:11) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – NE 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NE 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 19 for 8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:32) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to MIA 36 for 2 yards (91-D.Wise).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 45%

    (11:28) 17-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Addington, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (6:26) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:38) 17-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 32 for 8 yards (21-A.Phillips). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 38%

    (1:52) 4-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to NE 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:13) 17-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to MIA 37, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 40 for 3 yards (41-B.Schooler). MIA-11-C.Wilson was injured during the play.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:12) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 10 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:12) 17-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to MIA 49, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-C.Wilson to NE 41 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater). NE-8-J.Bentley was injured during the play.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (4:08) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:57) 17-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Addington, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:51) 4-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to NE 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 16 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:31) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 23-J.Wilson to MIA 35 for 9 yards (39-T.Hayes).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 81%

    (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 39 for -10 yards (92-Z.Sieler).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 38%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to NE 31 for 17 yards (23-K.Dugger).