Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 71

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 17-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to MIA 37, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 40 for 3 yards (41-B.Schooler). MIA-11-C.Wilson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model