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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 31

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model