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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 4-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to NE 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP