Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 23

(3:31) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 23-J.Wilson to MIA 35 for 9 yards (39-T.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.53 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.14 EP