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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 2

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs left guard to SF 2 for no gain (96-T.McGill; 91-A.Armstead).

The Three Options

GO +4.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model