4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SF
70.5%
LV
29.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jarrett Stidham (LV) -0.135 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.200 EPA/dropback (LV starting Jarrett Stidham in place of Derek Carr)
  • SF defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Jarrett Stidham (LV) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

SF 26
–
LV 20
Projected margin: SF by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Kevin Givens DT Out Knee
Deebo Samuel WR Out Ankle
Kerry Hyder DE Questionable Ankle
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Ankle

LV

Jackson Barton T Questionable Back
Zamir White RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 37
–
LV 34

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:45 TD LV (11:45) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 3-J.Stidham pass deep right to 83-D.Waller for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LV 6
  • Q1 07:09 TD SF (7:09) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LV 7
  • Q1 01:49 FG LV (1:49) 2-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. SF 7 – LV 10
  • Q2 09:45 TD SF (9:45) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:15 TD LV (:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – LV 16
  • Q3 10:34 TD LV (10:34) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-T.Hufanga]. Penalty on SF-7-C.Ward, Illegal Contact, declined. SF 14 – LV 23
  • Q3 05:28 TD SF (5:28) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – LV 24
  • Q4 12:39 FG SF (12:39) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 24 – LV 24
  • Q4 06:48 FG SF (6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 27 – LV 24
  • Q4 04:13 FG LV (4:13) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. SF 27 – LV 27
  • Q4 02:23 TD SF (2:23) 24-J.Mason left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 33 – LV 27
  • Q4 01:14 TD LV (1:14) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 34 – LV 33
  • Q5 06:57 FG SF (6:57) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 37 – LV 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.90 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (1:49) 2-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (4:33) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs left guard to SF 2 for no gain (96-T.McGill; 91-A.Armstead).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SF 44, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:23) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to LV 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:09) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to SF 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

    (12:39) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:49) 6-A.Cole punts 29 yards to SF 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 39 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 62%

    (4:13) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.