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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to SF 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP