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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model