Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(9:49) 6-A.Cole punts 29 yards to SF 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model