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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model