4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 2-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.90 EP