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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model