4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread 14.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

ARI
20.9%
SF
79.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.206 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ARI 17
–
SF 29
Projected margin: SF by 12 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Hand
Robbie Chosen WR Out Back
Zaven Collins LB Out Calf
James Conner RB Out Knee
Antonio Hamilton CB Out Hip
DeAndre Hopkins WR Out Knee
Colt McCoy QB Out Concussion
Marco Wilson CB Out Neck
Victor Dimukeje LB Questionable Illness
Leki Fotu DT Questionable Shoulder
Josh Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring
Tanner Vallejo LB Questionable Knee

SF

Aaron Banks G Out Ankle
Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Dre Greenlaw LB Out Back
Ambry Thomas CB Out Ankle
Kevin Givens DT Out Knee
Arik Armstead DT Questionable Foot
Javon Kinlaw DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 13
–
SF 38

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:34 TD ARI (14:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-S.Ebukam]. 37 YAC ARI 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 10:49 TD SF (10:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 25 YAC ARI 6 – SF 6
  • Q2 12:12 TD SF (12:12) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SF 13
  • Q2 04:44 TD ARI (4:44) (Shotgun) 23-C.Clement up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – SF 14
  • Q2 00:24 TD SF (:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC ARI 13 – SF 20
  • Q3 11:36 TD SF (11:36) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SF 27
  • Q3 05:50 FG SF (5:50) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. ARI 13 – SF 31
  • Q3 01:06 TD SF (1:06) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SF 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:18) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SF 30, Center-48-H.Bradley. 3-R.McCloud to SF 38 for 8 yards (47-E.Turner).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to ARI 23, Center-46-T.Pepper. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 30 for 7 yards (24-J.Mason).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:26) (No Huddle) 17-D.Blough up the middle to ARI 39 for no gain (50-M.Dwumfour).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:44) 14-A.Lee punts 53 yards to SF 16, Center-48-H.Bradley. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 30 for 14 yards (51-T.Vallejo).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 28%

    (14:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (5:50) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 78%

    (12:17) (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short left to 30-K.Ingram to SF 34 for -3 yards (38-D.Lenoir). 1 YAC

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:57) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ARI 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (7:58) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 29, Center-48-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 33%

    (4:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to ARI 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-6-D.Gray.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (:33) 32-T.Davis-Price left tackle to ARI 7 for 3 yards (51-T.Vallejo; 9-I.Simmons).