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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model