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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 31

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 38

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short left to 30-K.Ingram to SF 34 for -3 yards (38-D.Lenoir). 1 YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.05 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model