4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 38 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ARI 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.29 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP