4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 38

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 29, Center-48-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.78 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP