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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:43) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model