Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- CLE offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- QB edge to PIT: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.039 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.131 EPA/dropback
- PIT defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
CLE
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 06:33 TD CLE (6:33) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PIT 0
- Q2 01:52 TD PIT (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – PIT 6
- Q2 00:43 FG PIT (:43) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CLE 7 – PIT 10
- Q3 09:07 FG PIT (9:07) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CLE 7 – PIT 13
- Q3 03:17 TD PIT (3:17) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – PIT 19
- Q4 10:20 TD CLE (10:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 24-N.Chubb for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – PIT 20
- Q4 04:39 TD PIT (4:39) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 44-D.Watt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – PIT 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:37) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-S.Sims to PIT 33 for 12 yards (43-J.Johnson; 56-T.Davis).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 72%
(3:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-S.Sims to PIT 29 for 8 yards (40-J.Carter; 43-J.Johnson).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 33%
(:56) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(11:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-J.Darden to CLE 29 for 5 yards (37-E.Riley).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%
(:43) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 15 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%
(9:07) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to PIT 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 32. 82-S.Sims to PIT 32 for no gain (37-D.Bell).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 69 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 49 for 18 yards (34-T.Edmunds).