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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 49 for 18 yards (34-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.50 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model