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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-S.Sims to PIT 29 for 8 yards (40-J.Carter; 43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP