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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:56) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model