Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 79

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

(8:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to LAC 27, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model