4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Jay Rosburg
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌨 Snow Spread 6.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

LAC
57.0%
DEN
43.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.176 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.024 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
DEN 19
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

LAC

Zander Horvath FB Questionable Ankle

DEN

Calvin Anderson T Out Ankle
Kendall Hinton WR Out Chest
D.J. Jones DT Out Knee
Jonathan Kongbo DE Questionable Illness
Damarri Mathis CB Questionable Concussion
Eric Saubert TE Questionable Knee
Eric Tomlinson TE Questionable Ankle
Billy Turner T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 28
–
DEN 31

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 TD LAC (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 03:58 TD DEN (3:58) 28-L.Murray right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – DEN 6
  • Q2 11:01 TD LAC (11:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – DEN 7
  • Q2 02:46 FG DEN (2:46) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. LAC 14 – DEN 10
  • Q2 00:31 FG LAC (:31) 15-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 17 – DEN 10
  • Q2 00:10 TD DEN (:10) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 87-E.Tomlinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – DEN 16
  • Q3 11:51 TD DEN (11:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 36-T.Badie for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – DEN 23
  • Q3 06:46 FG LAC (6:46) 15-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 20 – DEN 24
  • Q4 11:21 TD DEN (11:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – DEN 30
  • Q4 06:06 TD LAC (6:06) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – DEN 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 71%

    (7:58) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to LAC 32 for 2 yards (8-K.Van Noy).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:41) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 86-F.Swain to DEN 13 for no gain (33-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (33-D.Leonard), recovered by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at DEN 13.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:46) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to LAC 38, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-D.Carter to LAC 47 for 9 yards (6-P.Locke; 46-J.Bobenmoyer).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to LAC 27, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (2:46) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:44) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 79%

    (:31) 15-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:08) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-25-L.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (6:46) 15-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:34) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:15) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 89-B.Johnson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-32-A.Gilman at DEN 29.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:28) 17-C.Waitman punts 59 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-D.Carter to LAC 40 for 28 yards (15-J.Virgil).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:27) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to DEN 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.