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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 15

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model