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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model