Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-25-L.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model