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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 15-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model