Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 71

Denver Broncos 31 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

(4:28) 17-C.Waitman punts 59 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-D.Carter to LAC 40 for 28 yards (15-J.Virgil).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model