Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Denver Broncos 31

(3:27) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to DEN 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.02 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model