Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 84

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(1:46) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to LAC 38, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-D.Carter to LAC 47 for 9 yards (6-P.Locke; 46-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.17 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model