4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 3-C.Akers right tackle to LA 38 for 4 yards (58-T.Muse, 97-P.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model