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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

LA
38.3%
SEA
61.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Baker Mayfield (LA): -0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 21
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

LA

Brian Allen C Out Calf
Aaron Donald DT Out Ankle
Nick Scott S Out Shoulder
Ben Skowronek WR Out Calf

SEA

Travis Homer RB Doubtful Ankle
Phil Haynes G Questionable Ankle
Quinton Jefferson DE Questionable Illness
Damien Lewis G Questionable Ankle
Ryan Neal S Questionable Knee
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Shin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 16
–
SEA 19

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:31 FG LA (13:31) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 3 – SEA 0
  • Q1 07:13 FG SEA (7:13) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 3 – SEA 3
  • Q1 00:20 FG SEA (:20) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 12:02 FG LA (12:02) 8-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 6 – SEA 6
  • Q2 00:45 TD LA (:45) 15-T.Atwell left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – SEA 6
  • Q3 09:16 TD SEA (9:16) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – SEA 12
  • Q3 04:17 FG LA (4:17) 8-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 16 – SEA 13
  • Q4 02:23 FG SEA (2:23) 61-K.Fuller and 72-A.Lucas reported in as eligible. 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 16 – SEA 16
  • Q5 04:38 FG SEA (4:38) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 16 – SEA 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (13:31) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (7:13) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:11) 11-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to SEA 31, Center-42-M.Orzech. 31-D.Dallas to LA 49 for 20 yards (37-Q.Lake).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (:20) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 84%

    (12:02) 8-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 32 for 7 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 38%

    (6:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 13, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 28 yards to LA 26, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:57) 3-C.Akers right tackle to LA 38 for 4 yards (58-T.Muse, 97-P.Ford).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:40) 11-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to SEA 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 31-D.Dallas pushed ob at SEA 12 for 4 yards (31-R.Rochell).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (4:17) 8-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 46%

    (14:23) 11-R.Dixon punts 27 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-37-Q.Lake.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LA 26, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 35 for 9 yards (38-G.Igwebuike).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:42) 11-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to SEA 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (4:32) 74-J.Curhan and 78-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end to LA 13 for 9 yards (2-T.Hill).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (2:23) 61-K.Fuller and 72-A.Lucas reported in as eligible. 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (1:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.