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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 11-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to SEA 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 31-D.Dallas pushed ob at SEA 12 for 4 yards (31-R.Rochell).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.69 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model