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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 8-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model